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We have the following properties of
the probability function:
The
previous properties represent formulas currently used in probability
calculus on a finite field of events.
Property (P9) is the main calculus
formula for applications in finite cases.
In addition, if {Ω, Σ,
P} is a σ-field, we also have the following properties:
Independent
events. Conditional probability
Let
us consider the experiment of tossing two coins and let A – heads
on first coin and B – heads on second coin be two events. The
occurrence of event A and its probability do not depend on
the occurrence of event B, and vice versa. In this case,
events A and B are said to be independent (each
isindependent of the other).

According
to this definition, in the previous example we have: P(A and B) =
P(A) x P(B) = (1/2) x (1/2) = 1/4.
Consider
an urn containing four white balls and three black balls. Two people
extract one ball each from the urn. Let
A – first person is extracting a white ball and
B – second person is extracting a white ball be two
events. The probability of event
B, in the absence of information about
A, is
4/7. If event
A has occurred, the probability of event
B is
1/2, so event
B depends on event
A. Therefore, these two events are not independent.
It is natural to call the probability of
event B conditional on event A and to denote it by
P(B│A).

Total probability formula. Bayes’s theorem


Bayes’s theorem is a main result in probability theory, which
relates the conditional and marginal probability of two aleatory
events A and B. In some interpretations of probability, Bayes’s theorem
explains how to update or revise beliefs in light of new evidence.
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All
properties of probability, the main results and theorems,
including the random variables and classical probability
distributions, along with suggestive examples and
applications, are all exposed in a comprehensible manner in
the book UNDERSTANDING
AND CALCULATING THE ODDS: Probability Theory Basics and
Calculus Guide for Beginners, with Applications in Games of
Chance and Everyday Life. You may find it in
the Books section with a free
sample.
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